Abstract
We estimate the effect of your own Venezuelan exodus into the Colombian work sector. The commercial and societal drama for the Venezuela brought about among the many most significant migratory exoduses into the latest age: more 4 million Venezuelans kept their country and you will close to step one.8 mil found its way to Colombia. We reveal that an increase in step 1 p.p off labor also have owed the migratory circulate triggered a fall when you look at the each hour wages within the Colombia of 0.4% and you will a poor effectation of 0.step 1 p.p. into a career rate away from low-competent gurus. The newest shed from inside the earnings was greater for males, low-competent and you can everyday experts.
Addition
The new Venezuelan migratory exodus the most important periods away from pressed migration international: on the cuatro.5 million regarding Venezuelans left its nation and you will went someplace else Footnote 1 (UNHCR 2019). Widely known destination for departing Venezuelan migrants is actually Colombia. According to specialized analytics, there were almost step 1.8 mil regarding Venezuelans surviving in Colombia in the 2019, due to the brand new Venezuelan monetary and governmental crisis, and therefore represents a boost in the express away from Venezuelans staying in Colombia according to this new national population out-of 0.07% in 2015 to 3.6% up to during the 2019.
Which high bout of migration signifies an issue in order to policymakers exactly who attempt to discover and you will assess the potential economic and you can societal outcomes of these a large inflow out of immigrants, especially for server places like Colombia.
Contained in this papers, We exploit brand new Venezuelan exodus so you’re able to comprehend the migratory episode’s impact on the fresh new Colombian work field. I incorporate a differences-in-variations methods and you can make my study by due to the quantity of exposure across Colombian departments to that particular exogenous labor also provide treat, both before and after 2016 (i.e. 2013-2019). For the 2016 a life threatening and you can unforeseen migratory influx out-of Venezuelans in order to Colombia took place if the limitations between them regions was basically reopened once almost a year off closure.
My quotes recommend that new intensification of the migratory circulate regarding Venezuelans while it began with middle-2016 produced a life threatening drop for the aggregate earnings plus the brand new employment rates of lower-competent workers inside Colombia. A boost in step one payment part (p.p.) of your labor force considering the inflow off Venezuelans generated an effective 0.4% reduced total of earnings and you can a good 0.1 p.p. decrease in a job to own lower-skilled professionals; this effect on a position represent a decrease of 0.18% prior to the average a career rates out of lower-competent Colombian specialists inside the 2015, before the Venezuelan exodus. While i imagine this type of outcomes to have Colombian divisions found on the border that have Venezuela (La Guajira and you can Norte de- Santander), performance train that declines in wages and a job for all professionals have been just as much as ten% and you will step 3.cuatro p.p. (an effective mediocre work), correspondingly, following border try lso are-exposed.
To help you guess the outcome away from migration during these two edging departments, We construct a processing group playing with around three divisions of Colombia you to were not firmly impacted by immigration and you will exhibited, typically, similar styles with respect to work sector variables along with similar socio-demographic qualities prior to the edging re also-opening. To provide robustness to the abilities, We use a vinyl Control Approach and you may estimate an equivalent distinctions-in-differences estimations offered other combinations of departments out-of Colombia since manage teams.
I also estimate heterogeneous outcomes of the sex, number of qualification, work formality and you will offered whether or not the people were neighbors or otherwise not. I have found you to, when you look at the aggregate, the newest damage within the wages are highest for men compared to females and far stronger for lower-competent gurus. Furthermore, the fresh reduction in wages is actually better having casual pros however, here are not extremely important differences between locals and you will non-natives; the actual only real exception is the fact I’ve found a statistically extreme raise throughout the informality rates among non-locals in Colombia.